NEW DELHI, 31st March, 2016 — Gartner, Inc. said global smartphone
sales will for the first time exhibit single-digit growth in 2016.
Global smartphone sales are estimated to reach 1.5 billion units in
2016, a 7 percent growth from 2015. The total mobile phone market is
forecast to reach 1.9 billion units in 2016.
Worldwide combined shipments for devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles
and mobile phones) are expected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2016, a
0.6 percent increase from 2015 (see Table 1). End-user spending in
constant U.S. dollars is estimated to decline by 1.6 percent year over
year.
Table 1
Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2015-2018 (Millions of Units)
Device Type | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook) | 244 | 228 | 223 | 216 |
Ultramobiles (Premium) | 45 | 57 | 73 | 90 |
PC Market | 289 | 284 | 296 | 306 |
Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility) | 195 | 188 | 188 | 194 |
Computing Devices Market | 484 | 473 | 485 | 500 |
Mobile Phones | 1,917 | 1,943 | 1,983 | 2,022 |
Total Devices Market | 2,401 | 2,416 | 2,468 | 2,521 |
Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft's Windows 10 Intel x86 products and Apple's MacBook Air.
The
Ultramobile (Basic and Utility Tablets) category includes devices such
as, iPad, iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S 10.5, Nexus 7 and Acer Iconia
Tab 8.
Source: Gartner (March 2016)
"The double-digit growth era for the global smartphone market has come to an end," said Ranjit Atwal,
research director at Gartner. "Historically, worsening economic
conditions had negligible impact on smartphone sales and spend, but this
is no longer the case. China and North America smartphone sales are on
pace to be flat in 2016, exhibiting a 0.7 percent and 0.4 percent growth
respectively."
Emerging Markets Continue to Grow, but at a Slower Rate
While
smartphone sales will continue to grow in emerging markets, the growth
will slow down. Gartner predicts that, through 2019, 150 million users
will delay upgrades to smartphones in emerging Asia/Pacific, until the
functionality and price combination of a low-cost smartphone becomes
more desirable.
"Prices did not decline enough to drive upgrades from low-end feature phones to low-end smartphones," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. "Vendors were not able to reduce the price of a 'good enough to use' smartphone lower than $50."
Countries
such as India will help generate new mobile phone user growth. Sales of
smartphones in India are on pace to reach 29 percent in 2016 and will
continue to exhibit double-digit growth in the next two years.
Mature Markets to Increase Mobile Phone Lifetimes
In
the mature markets of North America, Western Europe, Japan and mature
Asia/Pacific, Gartner analysts expect to see an extension of phone
lifetimes among users.
"As
carriers' deals become more complex, users are likely to hold onto
phones, especially as the technology updates become incremental rather
than exponential," said Ms. Zimmermann. "In addition, the volumes of
users upgrading from basic phones to premium phones will slow, with more
basic phones being replaced with the same type of phone."
PC Shipments to Bottom Out in 2016
The
global PC shipment market is expected to total 284 million units in
2016, a decline of 1.5 percent year over year. Traditional PCs are on
pace to decline 6.7 percent in 2016. "In 2016, the PC market will reach
its last year of decline before returning to growth in 2017," said Mr.
Atwal. "The biggest challenge, and potential benefit for the PC market,
is the integration of Windows 10 with Intel's Skylake architecture. It
has the potential for new form factors with more attractive features."
In
addition, the frustration with the capabilities in tablets will drive
some consumers and businesses to review new form factors. "However, to
draw their interest the PC manufacturers need to ensure that they meet
demand with the right products at the right price," added Mr. Atwal.
Demand
for ultramobiles (basic and utility tablets) will continue to weaken,
with a decline of 3.4 percent in 2016. Users are not only extending
lifetimes, but also some will fail to replace these devices at all
through 2016.
More detailed analysis is available in the report, "Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2013-2020, 1Q16 Update." Analysis on the impact of the devices forecast on overall IT spending will also be shared in the complimentary Gartner webinar, "IT Spending Forecast, 1Q16 Update: Where Is All the Money Going?" taking place on Tuesday April 12 at 11 a.m. EDT.